23 Jan 2023

There’s never a dull moment in the Middle East but every decade or so, events collide to produce a different regional landscape. Think back to the Arab uprisings of 2011, the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990, the Iranian revolution of 1979. We are overdue a tectonic shift. Welcome to 2023 — the list of what could go wrong is long.

At the top is a combustible combination: in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu is eager to stay in power to avoid corruption trials and leads the most hard-right government in the country’s history, and in Iran, the 83-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is worrying about succession and challenge to his rule. The implications for their own societies, those they occupy, directly or by proxy, and the region are considerable.

Last week there were warnings of civil war in Israel over Netanyahu weakening the Supreme Court. The year started with Israel’s new extremist national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, former member of an outlawed extremist group, making a provocative visit to the al-Aqsa mosque compound in East Jerusalem. When the then opposition leader Ariel Sharon visited the compound — also revered by Jews as Temple Mount — nearly 23 years ago, it triggered the second intifada. For now, Jordan has summoned Israel’s ambassador in protest and Netanyahu’s first official visit to the United Arab Emirates was delayed. The Abraham Accords are not in danger, yet, but Israel’s new Arab allies are in an uncomfortable position and every taunt will make it more difficult to bring others on board.

For Palestinians, 2022 was the deadliest year since the second intifada. The daily dose of violence by Israeli soldiers and settlers, evictions, arrests of minors and humiliation of life under occupation are set to increase as extremists in Bibi’s government claim oversight of the occupied territories.

Khamenei, challenged at home by a cross-section of Iranian society, will seize on every Israeli move as a chance to burnish his regional credentials as sole defender of the Palestinian cause — though it’s unlikely anyone believes this. The Iranian protests, now in their fourth month, represent the longest spate of unrest since the 1979 revolution. The theocracy may not be about to fall but if it does, it will change the Middle East — and there will be no turning back, especially for Gen-Z. The Iranian opposition will need to prove itself while the regime continues to execute prisoners at home and deploys diversionary tactics in the region, relying on its proxy militias from Lebanon to Iraq.

The unofficial death of Iran’s nuclear talks is likely to reignite Bibi’s bombast against Tehran. The White House will be anxious to keep close tabs on him. An Israeli military strike is unlikely but any attempt to reach out to the Iranian opposition will be fatal.

If all this isn’t worrying enough, the worsening economic conditions and failing institutions in Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria are beyond crisis point. Between a pandemic, the impact of war in Ukraine, inflation and rising energy prices, the world is a less happy place overall than it was in January 2020. But the region’s been unhappy even longer — with the exception of Gulf countries where oil revenues are helping drive prosperity. In Saudi Arabia, social and cultural reforms have transformed life for the youth, albeit with a heavy dose of authoritarianism. There is some progress in Yemen, where a new truce may soon be agreed.

In Egypt, after political oppression comes economic oppression. The pound has lost half its value since March, foreign currency is in short supply, creating a backlog in imports, and food inflation stands at 30 per cent. Egyptians are cutting back on staples as the government advises them to eat chicken feet in lieu of chicken, all while president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi is funding vanity projects such as a new capital city. The December deal for a $3bn loan from the IMF will be a blip for 109mn Egyptians.

After 12 years of uprising and war, the economic crisis in Syria has hit a new low with paralysing fuel shortages in rebel and government-held areas. President Bashar al-Assad can’t be sleeping easy: Vladimir Putin saved his regime in 2015 but Moscow’s attention is now on Ukraine, leaving an opening in Syria that others — namely Turkey and Israel — may exploit.

Since Joe Biden came to office in the US, the leitmotif of his approach to the region has been, with some success, de-escalation and integration, from pursuing nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna to promoting regional co-operation. But between general Middle East fatigue, fears of a global recession and the focus on Ukraine, there’s a danger that the US and the world will be caught unawares by events in the region. The words of the year will be escalation and disintegration.